Mystery over Chechnya: What happened to the downed Embraer-190 aircraft and how is air defense involved?
The incident involving the Azerbaijani plane is developing with new details and may pose a problem for either Putin or Kadyrov.
The day before yesterday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev celebrated his 63rd birthday.
Yesterday morning, he headed to St. Petersburg to participate in an informal summit of CIS heads of state.
However, during the flight, he received information about the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that was en route from Baku to Grozny but ended up in the area of Aktau (Kazakhstan). Aliyev decided to return to Baku, established a commission to investigate the incident, and stated that there are various versions, but it is necessary to wait for the investigation results.
According to a version quickly propagated in Russian media, the flight approaching Grozny was redirected to Makhachkala due to "deteriorating weather." However, there was fog in Makhachkala, leading to the plane being sent to Aktau. During this flight, it allegedly collided with birds, sustained damage, and crashed while attempting to land.
There were 38 fatalities out of 67 people on board.
The distance from Baku to Grozny is approximately 460 km, taking maneuvering into account. From Grozny to Makhachkala is about 120 km. Thus, everything is very close. At the moment the decision to "redirect" was made, it must have been known that there was fog in Makhachkala.
The distance from Makhachkala to Baku is only 30 km longer than to Aktau. The internet is already full of questions: why fly over the sea to a regional airport in another country when it would have been possible to return to the modern airport in Baku, where all services, including incident response, are of a significantly higher quality?
Possible answers can be found in the video from the cabin of the plane, followed by an overview of the damaged fuselage.
The characteristic damage to the fuselage closely resembles the result of the plane being shot at by some air defense system. And these damages occurred over Russian territory, specifically over Chechnya or Dagestan.
As soon as this video went viral, unofficial Russian channels began actively spreading a version of an alleged attack on the plane by a "Ukrainian UAV." It’s even curious what kind of UAV that could be and what strike systems it might carry?
Indirect confirmation of the air defense shooting version: Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended flights from Baku to Grozny (!) and Makhachkala (!) until the investigation into the cause of the crash is completed.
If the reason was bad weather and birds, then why suspend flights?
It seems that the plane was being directed to Makhachkala and then to Aktau, away from unnecessary scrutiny. If it had landed normally, everything could have been covered up. In Baku, even with a successful landing, it would have been much harder to conceal the shooting of the plane by Russian air defense, and leaks would likely have occurred.
The Azerbaijani publication "Hakkyn.az" (which is highly loyal to the authorities) has already posted a video from the cabin of the flying plane, suggesting that the damage might be from shrapnel and that a woman was injured in the leg.
Now everything depends on how the Azerbaijani president perceives the incident. Judging by how the information is already being presented, there seems to be at least an unofficial approval not to conceal the true cause.
The most likely cause is the work of air defense assigned for Kadyrov's protection. This immediately raises the question: what if the Russian air defense had targeted another plane, for example, Aliyev's presidential aircraft?
As of now, Kadyrov has expressed his condolences in a terse manner…
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