Ukraine aims to reduce payments for refugees in the EU and eliminate consular services, according to media reports.

The full-scale invasion of Russian troops in February 2022 forced millions of Ukrainians to flee abroad. To date, between six and ten million citizens continue to live outside Ukraine. The government has set an ambitious goal of bringing them back home, as the nation faces a severe demographic crisis exacerbated by the war. This is reported by the Spanish socio-political publication El Pais.

To tackle this challenge, a new department has been established — the Ministry of National Unity. President Volodymyr Zelensky identified its work as one of the priorities within the resilience plan presented to parliament on November 19. The ministry was created based on the reorganized Ministry for the Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories and officially began its operations on December 3.

The Number of Those Who Left and the Challenges Facing the New Ministry

Accurate data on the number of citizens abroad is lacking. Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov mentioned figures ranging from eight to ten million during a parliamentary session in December. According to the UN Refugee Agency, approximately 6.7 million Ukrainians have remained abroad since the start of the war. Economist Volodymyr Landa from the Center for Economic Strategy estimates this number to be five million, adding three to four million emigrants who left the country before the war.

However, the return of citizens is impossible without fulfilling a number of conditions, among which security, a stable economic and social situation, and access to quality healthcare and education are paramount.

Among the barriers to return are high rental prices, the breakdown of family ties, and a psychological divide between those who remained in the country and those who experienced the war abroad. For instance, journalist and migration researcher Olena Babyak notes that many emigrants feel alien both abroad and at home.

Reduction of Support

As noted by the publication, the Ukrainian government is exploring various ways to encourage returns. One proposal includes reducing support for Ukrainian refugees in EU countries. There is also discussion about limiting access to consular services for men of conscription age. Meanwhile, steps are being taken to strengthen ties with Ukrainians abroad: last week, parliament passed the first reading of a bill recognizing dual citizenship.

However, citizens themselves are cautious. For example, Oleksandra Balyasna, who left for the Netherlands with her daughter, does not plan to return until safety, stability, and access to essential medications are guaranteed.

According to the UN, 61% of refugees still hope to return home, but only after the situation improves. In the meantime, 1.2 million people have already returned for at least three months.

Demographic Crisis and Economic Challenges

Ukraine is facing a catastrophic decline in population. In 2001, the country had a population of 49 million, but by 2021, that number had decreased to 41 million. Today, taking into account emigration and the temporary occupation of certain territories, the population is estimated to be 31 million, according to the publication.

According to the Ministry of Economy, to achieve an annual GDP growth of 7%, the country will need between 3.1 to 4.5 million additional workers by 2032.

The situation is further complicated by a decline in birth rates. In 2023, the birth rate was only 0.7 children per woman, and it is expected to drop to 0.6 in 2024.

The government acknowledges that it will be impossible to bring everyone back: preliminary estimates suggest that between 1.3 to 3.3 million people may remain abroad. The temporal factor also plays a crucial role: the longer the war lasts, the lower the chances of citizens returning.

Without security, economic stability, and improved living conditions, it will be extremely difficult to bring millions of Ukrainians back. As Olena Babyak emphasizes: "Every year spent abroad decreases the likelihood of return."

It should be noted that the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine had not commented on the possible reduction of payments to refugees at the time of publication.

Recall that, according to German media, the decrease in jobs and increased competition in the labor market complicate the employment process for Ukrainian refugees in Germany. Experts believe that political changes following the parliamentary elections in 2025 could lead to cuts in social assistance and intensified discussions regarding the potential return of refugees to Ukraine.