The ISW suggests that Russia may create conditions for attacks in the Baltic Sea to undermine Ukraine's credibility.

The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service has reported that the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine intends to blow up a vessel in the Baltic Sea to prompt Western partners to block Russia's access to it. Additionally, there are claims that Ukraine, in collaboration with unidentified European intelligence agencies, is planning the assassinations of Russian opposition politicians living abroad. This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War on February 11.

"The Kremlin may be creating informational conditions for potential false flag attacks in the Baltic Sea and against Russian opposition politicians living abroad to discredit Ukraine," the statement reads.

This conclusion was drawn by the institute's analysts based on information from the Russian side regarding a possible preparation for attacks in the Baltic Sea: according to Russian intelligence, a terrorist act is being planned on a foreign vessel. Thus, Ukraine allegedly seeks to compel its partners to block Russian access to the sea and provoke a direct armed conflict between Russia and NATO countries.

Russia has also reported on the supposedly "planned assassinations" of Russian opposition politicians residing abroad. According to their claims, the Ukrainian side is preparing such crimes in collaboration with European partners, particularly intelligence agencies. However, the specific agencies in question remain unknown, the analysts noted.

It is likely that the Kremlin is attempting to undermine Ukraine's authority, accuse it of crimes, and derail peace negotiations that are being prepared in the U.S. to end the war.

"Russia has previously accused Ukraine and other Western countries of planning false flag attacks to discredit Ukraine and drive a wedge in Western unity regarding Ukraine, especially during critical moments of Western discussions on supporting Ukraine and potential peace plans," the analysts write.

On February 11, an RF reconnaissance aircraft was detected over Polish territory. It violated the country's airspace, entering from the Kaliningrad region. The Polish Air Force stated that Russia responded by claiming it was due to a "malfunction."