Russia replaces "Shaheds" with decoy drones: what unpleasant surprises await Ukraine's air defense forces?

Russia may reduce the production of kamikaze drones "Shahed" and switch to decoy drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense forces. This is stated in an analytical report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The drone manufacturing plant in the special economic zone "Alabuga" in Tatarstan produced over 6,000 "Shaheds" and thousands of decoy drones in 2024. From January to September of the previous year, this facility manufactured just over 5,000 strike UAVs, while production noticeably slowed down in the last quarter.

ISW believes that Russia is facing difficulties in supplying enough materials to maintain high production rates of "Shaheds." Russia is either still relying on Iran for drone component supplies or is attempting to procure high-tech components while circumventing Western sanctions.

The Russian defense industry may prioritize the production of false drones to overload the Ukrainian air defense system instead of focusing on more expensive strike drones like the "Shahed."

Recall that it was recently revealed how many drones the Russians launched at Ukraine in the first two months of 2025. Overall, the Russian Armed Forces used up to 4,000 drones for attacks, with Ukrainian air defense forces destroying more than half of them.

The Wall Street Journal reported that in Eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are relying on drones due to the numerical superiority of the occupiers.