"Encouraging for Putin": ISW explains what will happen if U.S. aid to Ukraine is halted.

According to analysts, the Kremlin will promptly escalate military operations in Ukraine and instill in Russians the belief that they will achieve all the strategic objectives set at the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/696103-esli-ssha-prekratyat-okazyvat-pomoshch-ukraine-eto-priblizit-pobedu-rf-isw2025-03-02 07:45:02

The cessation of American military and financial aid to Ukraine would bring Russia closer to victory and encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is stated in a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) dated March 1, 2025.

"Russia may take advantage of the situation to seize more territory and intensify pressure on Ukraine. This would not only bring Russia closer to victory but also boost the confidence of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, reinforcing his belief in the possibility of achieving his strategic goals, including control over Ukraine and other former Soviet republics, including current NATO member states," the report says.

Analysts clarified that the Kremlin is likely to ramp up its military campaign in Ukraine and will attempt to exploit any delay or cessation of military aid to Ukraine from the U.S., similar to what occurred in the spring of 2024.

The ISW asserts that the halt or delay of American assistance could be a decisive factor in shifting the balance of power in favor of Russia, as the Ukrainian Armed Forces are actively utilizing Patriot, HIMARS, and ATACMS to defend against missile strikes, disrupt enemy logistics, and undermine Russia’s defense-industrial potential.

Moreover, analysts emphasized that it is Putin, not Zelensky, who is the main obstacle to ending the war.

"Zelensky consistently reaffirms his commitment to achieving a fair and lasting peace in Ukraine through negotiations... Putin and other high-ranking Kremlin officials, on the other hand, have continuously confirmed their dedication to the initial objectives of the war in Ukraine, which include the complete capitulation of Ukraine, the replacement of the current Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian puppet regime, and Ukraine's commitment to neutrality and demilitarization," the report states.

All of this could render Ukraine almost defenseless against attempts at Russian aggression and destabilization, experts from the Institute believe.

It is worth noting that The Washington Post published an article claiming that Trump may halt all military aid to Ukraine.

The ISW report dated February 28 mentioned that while Zelensky was at odds with Trump, Russia was deepening its cooperation with China.