"Hazelnut" - myth and reality. What capabilities does the missile that struck Dnipro possess, and what are its limitations?
ABOUT THE TERRIFYING INTERCONTINENTAL MISSILES
The misinformation has piled up from all sides to the point where it’s hard to sift through it. In Russia, they have been showcasing (as if there’s anywhere further to go?) the mysterious "Rubezh," the hypersonic "Oreshnik," with no defense, and at the site where "Yuzhmash" once stood, there's now a deep pit filled with groundwater... In short, everyone should drop to the ground and tremble before Putin...
In reality, there is no intercontinental missile called "Rubezh." It's all Kremlin wordplay surrounding a sculpture made of nonsense. However, "Oreshnik" does exist, albeit in a limited number of experimental samples (this development was previously referred to as "Kedr," the sequence of names is obvious since cedar produces nuts).
Back when the USSR existed, our design bureau "Yuzhnoye" developed a project for an intercontinental mobile solid-fuel missile system called "Universal," but the project was handed over to the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology — they always took the best from us. "Universal" was adopted under the name "Topol-M." Later, in Moscow, it was simplified — instead of three stages, they made it two; it is now on combat duty under the name "Yars." This massive "beast," weighing nearly 50 tons, travels on an eight-axle truck through the roads of the taiga, carrying 4 warheads, with a flight range of 6,000 km — capable of striking the U.S. via the North Pole.
Somewhere around 2017, the media in the quasi-empire reported plans for modernizing "Yars" — they intended to create a new platform for deploying warheads to increase their flight speed, making interception by missile defense systems more difficult. This was supposed to become the "Rubezh" — apparently, in the quasi-empire, when they paint a missile in new camouflage, they also call it a new product and a breakthrough in global missile technology. However, there wasn't enough money at that time — everything was allocated for the hypersonic combat block "Avangard."
After the invasion of Ukraine began, it seems the funds were found, and ideas for "Rubezh" were realized. At the Institute of Thermal Technology, they took the tested design of "Yars," reduced it by a quarter, redesigned the deployment platform, and increased the number of warheads from 4 to 6. Accordingly, the truck received 6 axles instead of 8. The range was also reduced — to about 3,000 to 4,000 km.
In my opinion, it is this missile, which was hurriedly dubbed "Oreshnik," that has entered flight testing. The Russians clearly warned the U.S. about the tests, closed the airspace — all as it should be. However, instead of launching it at a test site, they sent the experimental missile over the million-strong Dnipro, over "Yuzhmash" (they didn't dare to strike the U.S. embassy in Kyiv, as they threatened). Following this, Putin and other propagandists began a hysterical campaign of intimidation — we will strike the Verkhovna Rada, the Yavoriv test site, Poland, and anywhere we want.
Although the warheads that flew over "Yuzhmash" were completely devoid of explosives, they still traveled at high speed — the craters from the impacts are quite deep (there are some nuances I prefer not to discuss until official information is released).
The combat effectiveness of the "Oreshnik" without nuclear capabilities is highly questionable — it's akin to delivering pizza with a mining dump truck. The accuracy will be plus or minus 100 meters, if not worse, and each warhead can carry about 100 kg of conventional explosives — similar to the Russian multiple launch rocket system "Tornado," which they have been using since the beginning of the invasion. "Tornado" rockets are also extremely difficult to intercept. Should we despair over the enemy possessing such weapons? Not to mention the three-ton KABs? By the way, all the missiles that have been attacking us for the past three years carry more explosives than the warheads of the "Oreshnik." Furthermore, all these missiles can also be armed with nuclear weapons.
Yes, the warheads of the "Oreshnik" travel at 7-10 times the speed of sound, which is true hypersonic speed, hence their impressive appearance in videos. But I reiterate: the warhead of any large ballistic missile descends at hypersonic speed; this is basic physics, and there’s nothing extraordinary or insurmountable about it.
Such missiles can be intercepted. The best suited for this are exo-atmospheric missile defense systems like the American THAAD or the Israeli "Arrow." However, it’s unlikely that they will be provided to us. Because the intimidation campaign surrounding the "Oreshnik" will soon wane, and the real threat it poses is not critical.
What concerns me more is the overall trend towards simplifying the perception of nuclear weapons as something feasible in this war. We need to put an end to Putinism as a global community before the mad dictator attempts to carry out his threats.
The author expresses a personal opinion that may not align with the editorial stance. The author bears responsibility for the published data in the "Opinions" section.