Anton Motolko, founder of "Belarusian Hayun," states that Belarus is under double occupation.
Learn about the potential overthrow of Lukashenko's regime in Belarus, the dictator's relationship with Putin, propaganda, ongoing repression, "Oreshnik," and nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory in the interview with the founder of the "Belarusian Hayun" project, Anton Motolko.
About Lukashenko's regime and the "elections"
About the migration of Belarusians abroad
About "Oreshnik" and nuclear weapons in Belarus
Ukrainians became aware of the "Belarusian Hayun" project at the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, when the aggressors also advanced from the territory of Belarus. The project's founder, Belarusian activist Anton Motolko, has been living abroad since 2020. He cannot return home as the Lukashenko regime has sentenced him in absentia on twelve charges, including "conspiracy to seize state power by unconstitutional means."
Meanwhile, "Belarusian Hayun" continues its work, conducting daily monitoring of all military activities in the country, both Russian and Belarusian. As Motolko told RBC-Ukraine, Belarusians continue to send him information from the ground—despite the current repressive laws, where any contact with "Hayun" threatens long prison sentences.
In a lengthy conversation with Motolko, RBC-Ukraine touched on many topics, ranging from why Lukashenko often portrays himself as a great commander to his relations with Putin and the prospects for overthrowing the regime in Belarus. Tomorrow, January 26, the "elections" will take place, where Lukashenko will once again appoint himself as the president of the country.
Above, you can watch the full version of the conversation, and below, read the shortened version of the talk.
About Lukashenko's regime and the "elections"
"This is not an electoral cycle as we are accustomed to in our region; there is no electoral process happening here. There are no basic things like freedom of speech, access to the press, or any of the usual freedoms that are typically present before elections. There is Lukashenko, there are spoiler candidates, and there are pseudo-opposition candidates who do not even hide their pseudo-opposition," Motolko says about the "electoral" event scheduled for January 26.
When asked who is more likely to overthrow Lukashenko—the people's uprising or the so-called "elites"—he has no clear answer. Motolko explains that there are no "elites" in Belarus as understood in the Ukrainian context. "Over these 30 years, Lukashenko has ensured that no one takes any responsibility, ever. Everyone is afraid to be in charge, everyone is afraid to show that they are capable of anything," he states.
Thus, a change of regime in Belarus can occur in various ways: through evolution (since Lukashenko is not getting any younger) or revolution. The country may take a civilized path or could devolve into a military junta with external support from Russia, China, or Iran.
"I believe that Belarus is under double occupation. Belarus is under Lukashenko's occupation, because we remember Belarus even under Lukashenko up until 2020. And Belarus under Russian troops... The 2022 referendum (on changes to the Belarusian constitution) took place with the participation of Russian troops on the ground. It is clear that this was a safety net, but these were Russian troops with full ammunition. Therefore, yes, I believe that Belarus is under occupation, under double occupation," Motolko asserts.
About Lukashenko and Putin
"The security forces were watching what Putin would say. And Putin said that they had prepared a brigade at the border with Belarus. Of course, this had an effect. It played its moral-psychological role, because essentially, it was an offer: move, and you will be at war with the Russians," Motolko describes the role Moscow played in the events of 2020 during the mass protests against Lukashenko, which he ultimately managed to suppress.
However, he does not believe that Russian tanks would actually enter Belarus to install a new president or support Lukashenko. As Motolko explains, one only needs to look at how slowly Russia reacted even to incursions into its own territory, such as in the Kursk region last summer.
"These are two peas in a pod," Motolko characterizes the current relationship between Lukashenko and Putin. "It is more about mutually beneficial conditions. Very often, Putin does indeed dominate, and Lukashenko allows himself to be treated as a younger brother."
Ultimately, when Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Motolko says that Lukashenko, in agreement with Putin, provided the Russians with territory, opened the borders, making him an absolutely provable accomplice in the aggression against Ukraine.
"What is his role and mission in the Russian aggression? Could he have refused? Probably, he could have, if he had not suppressed Belarus for two years prior, he would have had support. In the current situation, of course, no. But this is a situation where you do what you believe is necessary to maintain your own power. A person will do everything to hold on as long as possible," Motolko states.
About the migration of Belarusians abroad
Before the events of 2020, when Belarusians took to the streets en masse to protest against the falsified elections, emigration from Belarus was primarily economic. However, in recent years (including due to the large war in Ukraine), it has taken on a distinct political character. As a result, Motolko notes that currently up to two million Belarusians live outside their homeland. In comparison, independent estimates suggest that around eight million remain in Lukashenko-controlled territory.
"Since February-March 2022, IT companies in Belarus have been ordering charter flights to evacuate people to Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Central Asia, because air travel to Ukraine and Europe was closed. There was a massive exodus of IT specialists, people who feared being conscripted into the army immediately. This is not about mobilization; it is about 'we do not want to fight,' as there is a consensus among Belarusians: we do not support the war in Ukraine, we do not support Belarus's participation in this war, and we do not want to fight in it," Motolko explains.
About repression
"At 5-6 AM, they break down your door, rush in with guns and weapons in hand, twist your arms, and put you on the table. If there are children, that's your problem. They put a bag over your head, or not, depending on their preference, and transport you to the investigative committee, GUBOPiK (Main Department for Combating Organized Crime and Corruption), the Ministry of Internal Affairs, it doesn’t matter, to any of the departments. After that, depending on the mood of the people who detained you, they might tell you what happened at home, but most likely, you will hear about it at the station where you are taken. Next, they will try to extract maximum testimony, either to implicate others or for some other reason," Motolko describes the realities of modern Belarus.
According to him, repression has not ceased even after all active citizens have either ended up in prisons or fled abroad. For their existence, the punitive authorities must constantly detain new "extremists"—as a result, they come for people who merely participated in the 2020 protests, sometimes even for the second time.
Moreover, one can receive a lengthy prison sentence in Belarus for virtually anything: for a like on social media, for subscribing to one of thousands of banned resources, for displaying any item in white-red colors. Even a loud conversation in Belarusian, even on neutral topics, can attract unwanted attention.
About "Oreshnik" and nuclear weapons in Belarus
"There is a lot of talk about 'Oreshnik,' but little action. The deployment of 'Oreshnik' in Belarus has no military practicality," Motolko comments on Lukashenko's claims that he allegedly "requested the deployment" of these systems on Belarusian territory. "This is a fantasy at the level of both Putin and Lukashenko. The only thing we assume is that 'Oreshnik' is deployed on the chassis of the Belarusian MZKT (Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant), which is under sanctions from all over the world, as it seems to me. Here, Lukashenko is also collaborating with the Kremlin on military-industrial production," Motolko explains.
The founder of "Hayun" is also skeptical about the reports of Russian nuclear weapons being stationed in Belarus, despite