Future Drones: Which Technologies Will Transform Warfare by 2025?
According to analysts, in January of this year, for the first time in 35 months of war, Russia lost its advantage over Ukraine in tanks and armored vehicles on certain sections of the front. But what lies ahead? Fiber optic FPV, drone swarms, ground robotic complexes: which technologies will set the trend on the battlefield in 2025 – in the material from RBK-Ukraine.
Recently, the enemy has been deploying less equipment for assault operations, and its stockpiles from Soviet times are quickly depleting. The reason is the tactics employed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces using drones and the technological advancements made by Ukrainian developers in this area.
Of course, the Russians are also not standing still, openly copying the best Ukrainian innovations and creating their own solutions. This year may become even more intense in the military-technical confrontation between Ukraine and Russia.
On new technologies and promising types of weapons, Dmitry Babenko – co-founder of the Military Tech company Vyriy, one of Ukraine's leading drone and relay manufacturers – shared his insights.
Fiber Optic FPV
The mass emergence of fiber optic drones among the Russians has posed new challenges for Ukrainian military personnel on the battlefield, and these FPVs have inflicted significant losses. This drone is resistant to electronic warfare, and it can only be "stopped" physically: by breaking the cable or shooting down the UAV with a shotgun, interceptor drone, and so on.
"Fiber optic drones are the main trend for at least the first quarter of 2025. Currently, this is one of the most sought-after requests from the military. Ukraine has slightly lagged in scaling and implementing this type of UAV, and now we must surpass Russia in both quality and quantity of such FPVs," says Dmitry Babenko.
According to his estimates, fiber optic drones will occupy a niche of up to 30%, but they definitely won't be able to replace traditional FPVs. One of the reasons is the cost.
"For example: our company is currently producing its first samples of fiber optic drones. They will be significantly cheaper than similar products on the market, but still more expensive than regular FPVs. Add to this the reduced maneuverability, larger size, and greater logistical and deployment complexities. Plus, there are tasks where using fiber optic drones is simply unnecessary, and this, let's say, over-engineering is impractical for them," he explains.
Currently, fiber optic FPVs have a relatively short flight range, but this issue will be resolved quickly, he says.
"Is it possible to create a fiber optic drone with a range of 20 km or more? Absolutely," asserts Babenko.
"While the existing market offerings are expensive, we are doing everything we can to ensure our drones are priced as low as possible," he adds.
It's important not to overlook the fact that pilots of fiber optic drones will initially find it more challenging: slightly less maneuverability and the need to plan the route carefully to avoid breaking the "line." The advantages include better communication and improved image quality.
FPV Modernization
Electronic warfare, the withdrawal of equipment, and long-range weapons further from the front line create new challenges for manufacturers of "standard" FPV drones. The main objective is to deliver munitions as far as possible while overcoming electronic warfare countermeasures.
This year, according to Babenko, there will be a transition to 13-inch and 15-inch drones. Beyond that, it gets more complicated. The reason: certain limitations in Betaflight (the flight controller software – ed.).
"We need to use different software that is less common, including at the front. Consequently, fewer pilots know how to operate it. Plus, the "13" and "15" can address urgent tasks concerning both range and weight of the warhead. Therefore, I believe that for at least the first six months, such drones should suffice to meet the needs," the specialist adds.
He does not rule out the necessity of producing FPVs in 16 or 17 inches, which would have greater range and could carry larger warheads, but everything will depend on the situation at the front and its requirements.
According to the specialist's estimates, the drone market will expand in 2025. "There will be fiber optic drones, with terminal guidance, thermal imaging, and, of course, conventional FPVs," he predicts.
The withdrawal of equipment and long-range weapons further from the front line poses new challenges for manufacturers of "standard" FPV drones (photo: Getty Images)
Ground Robotic Complexes
According to the General Staff, thanks to robotic units, Ukrainian military losses have decreased by 30%, Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine Mykhailo Fedorov wrote on his page in November 2024 after the codification of four more Ukrainian robotic complexes by the Ministry of Defense.
Ground robotic complexes are a priority direction for the Defence Tech cluster Brave1 – a unified platform for cooperation among companies, the state, and the military, which already includes over 300 developments in this area.
"Ground robotic complexes are frequently used at the front for short logistics. This allows for the release and safety of personnel," says Babenko, "Additionally, there’s the evacuation of the wounded and deceased. While there are still no 100% effective solutions for complete evacuation, they will emerge: many teams are working on this. Therefore, robotic complexes are an important and effective story. One should not dismiss the possibility of launching drones from robotic complexes."
Drone Swarms
Back in October 2024, seven Ukrainian companies showcased their developments in this area – the ability to unite several dozen drones into a single network, managed by one pilot, with each UAV capable of independently acting as part of the group.
According to the interviewee, this technology has already been partially implemented specifically for the front, where the main challenge is the lack of GPS. However, he mentions that Ukrainian companies are also working on this and have developed their communication systems. Therefore, Babenko expects that a drone swarm should appear on the battlefield this year.
Long-Range Drones
The beginning of 2025 is marked by large-scale and effective strikes deep into Russia. Babenko is confident that their number will increase, and their effectiveness will improve.
"Teams are working, developing. New communication systems are emerging, and there are new approaches for mission planning. So we will be observing," he says.
Pilot Training
The increase in the number and variety of UAVs will require a larger number of well-trained pilots. However, developers are working to simplify the training and drone management processes.
"In Ukraine, there are many schools for FPV pilots, and we collaborate with many of them. For instance, with Borivitr, with whom we launched a joint course on terminal guidance. There are others we assist, and we receive feedback, which is very important for us," notes the interviewee.
According to him, the manufacturers' task is to create a drone that minimizes the requirements for the pilot since managing standard FPVs can be challenging.
"Therefore, we need to simplify the drone management process and make training as quick as possible, so a newcomer can, let's say very conditionally, perform combat tasks within a few days. There are many enemies, a lot of work, and many crews needed. So we must develop and move forward," concludes the specialist.
This material was created with the participation of CFI, Agence française de développement médias, as part of the Hub Bucharest Project with the support of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs.