Michael Kofman, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment and a military analyst from the USA, emphasizes that as winter approaches, Russia will face serious challenges.
“Russia's advantage on the battlefield is likely to diminish as we enter winter and look further into 2025,” Kofman asserts.
He points out that Russian equipment and resources are rapidly depleting, and despite efforts to replenish losses, production is not keeping pace with the losses on the front lines.
Russia is actively consuming its stockpiles of equipment inherited from the Soviet era, but these reserves are dwindling.
“Production rates remain low compared to battlefield losses,” Kofman notes, adding that Moscow is forced to change tactics to reduce losses, which limits opportunities for operational breakthroughs.
Moreover, a tense situation is developing regarding the recruitment of new soldiers. Russia is actively attracting recruits with substantial monetary bonuses, which, according to analysts, indicates issues with recruitment. Kofman emphasizes that current losses make the recruitment campaign insufficiently effective to compensate for the losses.
Thus, the depletion of equipment, personnel, and changes in the tactics of the Russian army may lead to a reduction in its numerical and operational advantage in the future.
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